Myth and Thomas Jefferson Essay Example for Free

Analysis Report of Cango

Examination Report of CanGo Veronica Perla BSN460ON Senior Project Dr. John Martin September 7, 2009 Overview CanGo is an Internet new business that retails an energizing cluster of items and administrations, running from books and recordings to web based gaming, and highly esteems giving the best client care as far as item conveyance and backing. The company’s Web website is fun and simple to utilize; utilizing the most recent innovation in Web webpage advancement, item development, and administrations is the manner by which CanGo endeavors to give their clients the most energizing diversion. Most of CanGo’s clients are the Gen-Xers and the Gen-Yers, who appreciate the most recent in web based gaming and diversion. Under age, buyers (under 18 years old) are adjusted dependably by requiring grown-up consent for online buys. CanGo firmly values its workers and clients. The organization best serves its workers by including them in dynamic, staff preparing, and advancement. CanGo accepts that keeping their representatives inspired and working at their maximum capacity can convert into the most ideal client support. There is a developing pattern that CanGo includes distinguished inside the gaming business that will be used to bring the organization included achievement. This developing pattern is internet gaming. CanGo needs to turn into a pioneer of the internet gamming market. The expectation of the organization is to turn into a total example of overcoming adversity both as an online retailer and internet gaming administration. The organization has as of late been known as an example of overcoming adversity by the Hudson Valley Business Association. The CEO of CanGo, Elizabeth Bennet, has been named the Regions Business Leader of the year. Potential business people need to know how and why CanGo turned into an example of overcoming adversity. This prompts the qualities, shortcomings, openings and dangers that this Internet Company has and faces in its innovative undertakings. S. W. O. T Analysis The data used to build up this investigation was taken from the visual examination performed on recorded scenes portraying staff collaboration and friends elements. The perceptions will be isolated into inside (Strengths and Weaknesses) and outer (Opportunities and Threats) issues. Qualities CanGo has exhibited a couple of qualities in these fundamental scenes. Elizabeth Bennet, CEO of CanGo, is the company’s most prominent quality. Her vision of realizing what purchasers need and how to get it to them at a lower cost is the thing that has made CanGo an example of overcoming adversity in Hudson Valley. This energy is helped through to the staff and is exhibited by Andrew’s enthusiasm to assume the possibly rewarding business sector of web based gaming. The CanGo staff is another of the company’s qualities. Each staff part carries an extra asset to the organization that can be used to improve efficiency and advancement. For example, Debbie has hierarchical abilities and an instructing foundation that can be used for preparing purposes. Preparing and improvement are qualities that fruitful organizations groups. Using the abilities that each staff part brings can help CanGo become a greater example of overcoming adversity the nation over and not simply in Hudson Valley. These qualities additionally lead to CanGo’s shortcomings as an organization. Shortcomings These starter scenes additionally indicated a significant number of CanGo’s shortcomings. The most evident shortcoming would be the absence of a dream articulation, statement of purpose and key arrangement. These shortcomings were made evident by Elizabeth Bennet’s dissatisfaction with the composition of the discourse she was to give at the Chamber of Commerce meeting. She expresses that her prosperity was dumb karma and that everything she did was start another undertaking. A key arrangement is critical to an effective organization since it manages and concentrates all staff individuals to explicit objectives and sets up a strategy to accomplish them. Vital arranging likewise fills in as an approach to guarantee that all divisions inside the association share a shared objective. Another significant segment to a fruitful business is the vision and statements of purpose. Vision articulations are composed for the association and its workers. They are involved the fantasies and motivations of the association and where it is going. This announcement additionally fills in as the structure for the organization’s vital arrangement. Statements of purpose are a portrayal of the organization’s reason for existing. It ought to be gotten from the vision explanation and utilized as a guide while delivering a key arrangement. These three articles would have helped Elizabeth compose the Chamber of Commerce discourse by giving her the establishment important to give the potential business visionaries going to this gathering the how and why of CanGo’s achievement. There are a couple of other inside issues that plague CanGo and may hinder its prosperity if not tended to. The absence of undertaking usage methodology, hierarchical aptitudes, the board inclusion and incredulity can prompt horrible showing, bombed ventures, and miscommunication. Actualizing an undertaking plan can assist keep with staffing individuals on course and pinpoint regions that may require unique consideration. This arrangement additionally helps ensure that undertakings follow explicit ways to ensure convenient outcomes. Using the assets that staff individuals bring to the organization will guarantee that everybody has the right stuff important to achieve their goals. For example, Debbie Haynes was beforehand an instructor at the Drake School of Business; she has incredible hierarchical and instructing aptitudes that can be used by CanGo to additionally build up the staff. Debbie can head a preparation class on the significance of arranging, organizing and planning approaching activities utilizing Gantt graphs. These sorts of assets are bounteous inside any association; all that is required is to recognize what sort of ability every specific staff part brings to the association. The last significant shortcoming is the absence of the executives contribution over the span of a task. This is made clear when Warren gave Nick the assignment of making a usage report for internet gaming. Scratch was forgotten about to figure it all alone. The executives ought to be engaged with the arranging and usage of any task. For example, CanGo could execute systems like research cutoff times, primer draft close down necessities and ranking staff group eetings to examine the advancement of the undertaking. This will dispense with the opportunity for poor and expensive mistakes. CanGo has the chance to contemplate these shortcomings and roll out certain improvements that will improve the association all in all. This sort of progress will set it up to accomplish outer chances and manage outside dangers also. Op enings CanGo has qualities and shortcomings as well as circumstances. These potential open doors are for organization development, expanded capital, new market adventures, and venture into different regions of web based business. There is an incredible open door for organization development both concerning increment workforce and potential mergers with other startup Internet organizations. As CanGo arrives at higher deals volume it will be important to consolidate a robotized stockpiling and recovery framework. With the looming 500 percent expansion in deals this coming Christmas season; CanGo needs to verify that their request satisfaction and preparing focus is prepared to deal with this conceivable increment. Each organization is searching for an approach to expand its capital. CanGo has been getting ready to open up to the world which will build its capital base. This sort of chance can likewise turn into a shortcoming because of the flightiness of the financial exchange. Be that as it may, if CanGo can effectively deal with its 500 percent deals increment during the Christmas season, this open door can end up being an extremely worthwhile endeavor. CanGo’s most prominent open door is to fan out into new markets. Online business is an extremely expansive market that has a lot of chances for associations, for example, CanGo. The CanGo group may choose to extend and incorporate different things to their rundown of stock. Elizabeth Bennet’s dream was to assist customers with shopping and find what they need simpler and at a lower cost. On the off chance that she adheres to this way of thinking she may take CanGo toward Amazon. com or Overstock. com. Anything is possible for these sorts of chances. New market adventures might be an extraordinary worthwhile chance however it might likewise carry with it dangers. Dangers The CanGo association faces a few dangers like the chance of disappointment, loss of capital, and takeovers. Disappointment is prominent for any association yet it is particularly famous for CanGo. The absence of a dream, statement of purpose and a key arrangement can prompt disappointment. Vision and statements of purpose are significant for any association since they not just give an away from of what the organization’s objectives and goals are nevertheless they additionally help give the staff a standard that ought to be met and kept up. Executing a key arrangement is an indispensable piece of any fruitful business and has been demonstrated to help bring a business through intense financial atmospheres. Loss of capital is additionally a reasonable danger. This might be brought about by claims, producer or seller liquidations and low deals. Keeping capital secure is some of the time somewhat hard to do. This might be practiced by buying risk protection and utilizing an assortment of producers and merchants. Low deals are frequently legitimately connected to the monetary conjecture. This is some of the time hard to get ready for and ought to be seen by the bookkeeping and money division to guarantee that the stock bought coordinate the potential deals and future market figure. Takeovers of fruitful organizations are likewise dangers that should be looked for. CanGo’s accomplishment as a little Internet web based business organization may make it an alluring organization to buy. Contenders like Amazon. com and Overstock. com may feel that CanGo’s achievement is a power that should be co

A Proposal for Student Transportation at Rutgers University free essay sample

This paper presents a proposition for improved understudy transportation at Rutgers University, utilizing it for instance to introduce the need and preferred position of ease understudy transportation. This paper presents a proposition for improved understudy transportation at Rutgers University, utilizing it for instance to introduce the need and favorable position of ease understudy transportation. From the paper: Rutgers University is one of the biggest state colleges in the nation. It brags an enlistment more than 48, 000 understudies by and large over the territory of its three grounds. (Rutgers University Website) There are numerous advantages of being an understudy at such an extensive and differing organization. There are numerous impediments too. It would be putting it mildly of practically top notch incongruity to take note of that numerous Rutgers understudies own vehicles. Rutgers, being a state establishment, includes numerous people inside driving separation to its grounds. The entirety of the grounds are generally, urban establishments. We will compose a custom paper test on A Proposal for Student Transportation at Rutgers University or on the other hand any comparable point explicitly for you Don't WasteYour Time Recruit WRITER Just 13.90/page Along these lines stopping is a huge issue for the two understudies and workforce.

Differentiation in Special Education Classrooms

Separation in Special Education Classrooms Separation is the manner in which an instructor plans guidance to address the issues of the considerable number of kids in a comprehensive homeroom, from the most tested to the most skilled. Separating guidance isn't just going to help your specialized curriculum understudies completely take part, it will likewise advance and improve the experience of the general training understudies. Everyone wins. A very much structured separated exercise will incorporate a portion of the accompanying: A solid visual part, community oriented exercises, peer instructing, a multi-tactile way to deal with introducing data and separated evaluation dependent on qualities. A Strong Visual Component Arent advanced cameras and online picture look through superb assets? Kids with perusing issues have significantly less trouble managing pictures than images. You may even have groups of kids cooperate to accumulate pictures for guidance, or you may request that Mom email youâ some most loved get-away pictures. Medically introverted understudies can profit by the utilization of cards to learn sight jargon, qualities, security signs and to assess new jargon. Community oriented Activities Coordinated effort will be the characteristic of a fruitful pioneer and worker later on, so this is an aptitude all understudies will require. We likewise realize that kids gain best from peers. Perhaps the most grounded explanation behind incorporation is the way that working across capacity bunches pulls up the lower working gathering. You have to set aside effort to show coordinated effort, utilizing a fishbowl approach. Have a gathering of understudies model the procedure of joint effort, and afterward assess their exhibition as a gathering. As you are showing a thing or two utilizing community groups, invest energy assessing them as a gathering: Did everybody get an opportunity to talk? Did everybody take an interest? On the off chance that you see that gatherings are not working great, you may need to move in, stop, and do some instructing. Friend Coaching Its a smart thought to make a few accomplices for each youngster in the class. One strategy includes 4 pairings in each class a clock face to show: a 12 oclock accomplice, with an understudy most like every understudy in capacity (relegated by the instructor,) a 6 oclock accomplice, who is the contrary degree of capacity, and 3 and 9 oclock accomplices based on their personal preference. Invest energy from the get-go in the year preparing your understudies to work in associations. You may attempt trust strolls with your accomplices, having every youngster alternate strolling their blindfolded accomplice around the study hall with just spoken bearings. Make certain to question with your group, and discussion about the significance of tuning in to one another and seeing every others qualities and shortcomings. Be certain you model the sort of constructive relational associations you need to see from kids. Friend mentors can help each other with cheat sheets, with composed assignments, and with synergistic exercises. A Multi-Sensory Approach We are excessively reliant on print as an approach to present new data. A portion of the youngsters with IEPs may have qualities in sudden zones: they might be extraordinary artists, innovative developers, and entirely proficient at social event data outwardly on the web. The more tangible roads you connect as you are presenting new material, the more probable every one of your understudies will hold it. Do some tasting with a social investigations exercise: How about coconut for a unit on the Pacific, or attempting some salsa when you are finding out about Mexico? What about development? You can utilize a particle game to show kids what happened when you heat components. At the point when you turned up the warmth (orally, and lifting my hand to raise the temperature) they would surge around the room as far separated as could reasonably be expected. At the point when you drop the temperature (and my hand) the understudies would assemble and move only a smidgen, gradually. You can wager all of those children recalled what happened when you heat a fluid or gas! Appraisal that Builds on Strengths ​ There are bunches of approaches to survey dominance other than a numerous decision test. Rubrics are one extraordinary approach to make clear ways for understudies to show they have aced the materials. A portfolio might be another way. As opposed to requesting that an understudy compose, you may request that an understudy sort or gathering pictures as indicated by measures you have learned, name pictures, or have the understudies answer addresses that assist them with showing information on new materials.

5 Ways to Be More Likeable

5 Ways to Be More Likeable 5 Ways to Be More Likeable 5 Ways to Be More Likeable The topic of this piece may create some frustration for advocates of self-love and self-acceptance. Doesn’t the idea of trying to be liked sound like it flies in the face of those who would suggest that there is no need to make an effort to be liked? That being who you are is enough and that we shouldn’t try to be more likeable? My question is why can’t it be both/and? Hear me out. What does it mean to be likeable? Being liked and being likeable are all about being authentic. When you are true to who you are, you come across as genuine. Being genuine makes people want to be around you. You become an example to live by, and you inspire others to be true to themselves as well. Ultimately, self-love and acceptance go hand-in-hand with being likeable, and I would suggest that it is difficult to have one without the other. As humans we value connection with others. We are a community oriented species and we naturally look for those who we find attractive to be in our group. A strong indication of whether someone will be ‘liked’ is how well they know and are at ease with who they are. Look, even science says so. It is likely that the idea of being liked or likeable appeals to you as a college student. You are in a position where you will be networking with many different individuals from diverse communities. You may feel that it is important to put your best foot forward in an effort to be attractive and loved. The first step in the process is to begin with an effort at loving yourself. When you enjoy who you are, your confidence radiates out to others, making them, in turn, more comfortable with themselves. You can be genuine, while also making an effort to do some inner work and reflect on how you may be perceived by others. This requires being conscious and aware of how your actions impact other people. The following is a list of ideas to consider when you are actively working on personal development in regards to your interactions with others. If you hope to be more likeable, first think about how to get to the root of who you truly are, and then let your personality shine through from there. Use the following ideas to enhance the personality traits you likely already have. Cultivate a Habit of Deep Listening People enjoy telling their story. If you’re hoping to enhance your likeability try to cultivate a habit of listening to people on a deeper level. If they are telling a story about their day, really listen to them. This means putting down your phone and focussing in on what they are telling you. Make just enough eye contact so they feel that you are being attentive to them. Pick up on specific problems or parts of the story they are telling and ask a question about it. Share some thoughts from your own experience, but make certain that the chat is a two-way exchange. Listening is one of the fundamental components of communication, and it is particularly important when we are constantly bombarded with distractions and interruptions. Be a more likeable and genuine person by actively participating in the act of listening. People will appreciate being listened to and they will offer the same to you when it is your turn to speak. For more on the practice of deep listening, check out this blog by Mindful Magazine. Be Thoughtful with Your Language This second tip ties in with the first. Speaking and listening are fundamental to proper communication. Though this seems obvious, we often forget that our words have an impact on people. Perhaps this is due to the individualistic nature of our society wherein people feel that they have the right to express their opinion even to the detriment of others. Although I do not discount the importance of individualism and speaking your mind, it is also important to be mindful of the language and thoughts you express. Our actions and the words we choose to use speak to our inner nature. If we are focussed on belittling people and speaking negatively, people may develop a less-than-favourable opinion about us. If we choose to speak with kindness and use language that is appropriate, we may be perceived as more approachable. Speaking in a friendly tone and maintaining an open demeanor can also make us seem amiable. Being mindful about how we listen and speak is a first step in becoming more likable. Be Open-Minded People love to have their opinions heard. Likable people are perceived as more personable because they tend to be open-minded when talking to people. They are open and willing to engage with a variety of people, regardless of their background or experience. They listen without judgement and avoid the tendency towards preconceived ideas about other people. They have their own opinions and they may not agree with another person’s point of view, but they are willing to take the time to listen and make an attempt to understand. In order to develop this skill, practice active listening. Attempt to cultivate a stance of true curiosity whenever you meet someone whose perspective differs from yours. Ask questions and allow the individual to offer their thoughts and ideas while also sharing your own feelings. You will find that participating in this kind of communication pattern will open up the doors to deeper dialogue. Be Balanced Now, certainly being balanced is not always a possibility. We all have off days where we are not feeling our best. However, if being grumpy tends to be the norm for you, you may want to begin looking at making some changes in your life. Usually a persistent gloomy mood means that there are some underlying causes of unhappiness. Short of an underlying personal issue, make sure to maintain a consistently balanced and reliable personality when engaging with people. When people’s moods fluctuate greatly or are perceived as unpredictable, this tends to affect their likability. If you are deemed unpredictable in social settings, people may even actively avoid you. When entering a social situation, make certain that you are feeling grounded and level-headed, this way people will perceive you as reliable and balanced. If you are having a bad day, remember that you do not have to say everything that comes to your mind. Sometimes it is best to keep your thoughts to yourself, smile, and nod. Get on the Same Wavelength It may come as a surprise, but in social engagements we love when people mirror our actions. In other words we have a tendency to mirror those who are around us. Think about it, if someone smiles at you, what is your reaction. Do you smile back? This is a natural reaction that begins in infancy, we learn to mimic the facial reactions of others as we learn how to engage in social interaction. Mirroring or social synchronization is an essential component of developing social ties. By syncing up with those around us we are building rapport. If we take the time to actively develop this skill, it can be a powerful way of building connection with other people. When we learn to sync up with others while maintaining our own sense of self, it facilitates feelings of empathy and it may make the other individual feel as though you are on the same wavelength as them. Practice Being Social We are social beings. We love to be heard and we love to communicate with each other. That does not mean it is always easy. As a new college or university student you may hope to hone your skills in the communication department as a strategic way to make connections and begin to network with others. You never know who may be your future boss or employee. Taking some of the above techniques into consideration as you navigate your university career may help you to connect with others while maintaining a link to your authentic self. Social engagement is just one way to boost your credibility in the academic sphere. Focussing on academics is certainly a primary aim for students. Should you need help navigating any of the challenges university and college have to offer, please check out our services. We at Homework Help Global are always available to make your life go a little more smoothly. 5 Ways to Be More Likeable 5 Ways to Be More Likeable 5 Ways to Be More Likeable The topic of this piece may create some frustration for advocates of self-love and self-acceptance. Doesn’t the idea of trying to be liked sound like it flies in the face of those who would suggest that there is no need to make an effort to be liked? That being who you are is enough and that we shouldn’t try to be more likeable? My question is why can’t it be both/and? Hear me out. What does it mean to be likeable? Being liked and being likeable are all about being authentic. When you are true to who you are, you come across as genuine. Being genuine makes people want to be around you. You become an example to live by, and you inspire others to be true to themselves as well. Ultimately, self-love and acceptance go hand-in-hand with being likeable, and I would suggest that it is difficult to have one without the other. As humans we value connection with others. We are a community oriented species and we naturally look for those who we find attractive to be in our group. A strong indication of whether someone will be ‘liked’ is how well they know and are at ease with who they are. Look, even science says so. It is likely that the idea of being liked or likeable appeals to you as a college student. You are in a position where you will be networking with many different individuals from diverse communities. You may feel that it is important to put your best foot forward in an effort to be attractive and loved. The first step in the process is to begin with an effort at loving yourself. When you enjoy who you are, your confidence radiates out to others, making them, in turn, more comfortable with themselves. You can be genuine, while also making an effort to do some inner work and reflect on how you may be perceived by others. This requires being conscious and aware of how your actions impact other people. The following is a list of ideas to consider when you are actively working on personal development in regards to your interactions with others. If you hope to be more likeable, first think about how to get to the root of who you truly are, and then let your personality shine through from there. Use the following ideas to enhance the personality traits you likely already have. Cultivate a Habit of Deep Listening People enjoy telling their story. If you’re hoping to enhance your likeability try to cultivate a habit of listening to people on a deeper level. If they are telling a story about their day, really listen to them. This means putting down your phone and focussing in on what they are telling you. Make just enough eye contact so they feel that you are being attentive to them. Pick up on specific problems or parts of the story they are telling and ask a question about it. Share some thoughts from your own experience, but make certain that the chat is a two-way exchange. Listening is one of the fundamental components of communication, and it is particularly important when we are constantly bombarded with distractions and interruptions. Be a more likeable and genuine person by actively participating in the act of listening. People will appreciate being listened to and they will offer the same to you when it is your turn to speak. For more on the practice of deep listening, check out this blog by Mindful Magazine. Be Thoughtful with Your Language This second tip ties in with the first. Speaking and listening are fundamental to proper communication. Though this seems obvious, we often forget that our words have an impact on people. Perhaps this is due to the individualistic nature of our society wherein people feel that they have the right to express their opinion even to the detriment of others. Although I do not discount the importance of individualism and speaking your mind, it is also important to be mindful of the language and thoughts you express. Our actions and the words we choose to use speak to our inner nature. If we are focussed on belittling people and speaking negatively, people may develop a less-than-favourable opinion about us. If we choose to speak with kindness and use language that is appropriate, we may be perceived as more approachable. Speaking in a friendly tone and maintaining an open demeanor can also make us seem amiable. Being mindful about how we listen and speak is a first step in becoming more likable. Be Open-Minded People love to have their opinions heard. Likable people are perceived as more personable because they tend to be open-minded when talking to people. They are open and willing to engage with a variety of people, regardless of their background or experience. They listen without judgement and avoid the tendency towards preconceived ideas about other people. They have their own opinions and they may not agree with another person’s point of view, but they are willing to take the time to listen and make an attempt to understand. In order to develop this skill, practice active listening. Attempt to cultivate a stance of true curiosity whenever you meet someone whose perspective differs from yours. Ask questions and allow the individual to offer their thoughts and ideas while also sharing your own feelings. You will find that participating in this kind of communication pattern will open up the doors to deeper dialogue. Be Balanced Now, certainly being balanced is not always a possibility. We all have off days where we are not feeling our best. However, if being grumpy tends to be the norm for you, you may want to begin looking at making some changes in your life. Usually a persistent gloomy mood means that there are some underlying causes of unhappiness. Short of an underlying personal issue, make sure to maintain a consistently balanced and reliable personality when engaging with people. When people’s moods fluctuate greatly or are perceived as unpredictable, this tends to affect their likability. If you are deemed unpredictable in social settings, people may even actively avoid you. When entering a social situation, make certain that you are feeling grounded and level-headed, this way people will perceive you as reliable and balanced. If you are having a bad day, remember that you do not have to say everything that comes to your mind. Sometimes it is best to keep your thoughts to yourself, smile, and nod. Get on the Same Wavelength It may come as a surprise, but in social engagements we love when people mirror our actions. In other words we have a tendency to mirror those who are around us. Think about it, if someone smiles at you, what is your reaction. Do you smile back? This is a natural reaction that begins in infancy, we learn to mimic the facial reactions of others as we learn how to engage in social interaction. Mirroring or social synchronization is an essential component of developing social ties. By syncing up with those around us we are building rapport. If we take the time to actively develop this skill, it can be a powerful way of building connection with other people. When we learn to sync up with others while maintaining our own sense of self, it facilitates feelings of empathy and it may make the other individual feel as though you are on the same wavelength as them. Practice Being Social We are social beings. We love to be heard and we love to communicate with each other. That does not mean it is always easy. As a new college or university student you may hope to hone your skills in the communication department as a strategic way to make connections and begin to network with others. You never know who may be your future boss or employee. Taking some of the above techniques into consideration as you navigate your university career may help you to connect with others while maintaining a link to your authentic self. Social engagement is just one way to boost your credibility in the academic sphere. Focussing on academics is certainly a primary aim for students. Should you need help navigating any of the challenges university and college have to offer, please check out our services. We at Homework Help Global are always available to make your life go a little more smoothly.

Studying The Bankruptcy Of Orange County Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

The case of bankruptcy of Orange County in 1994 emphasize the importance of using duration and Value at risk (VAR) to assess portfolio risk and avoid future bankruptcy. Duration and VAR analysis provide deeper understanding about the underlying risk of the Orange County Investment Pool which was heavily leveraged and interest-pledged through reverse repurchase agreements and other derivatives in the pool. Some VAR estimation, including historical simulation method, delta-normal method and Monte Carlo simulation will be used to calculate worst possible loss. The EWMA will be used to provide more accurate estimation of the volatility to improve the accuracy of VAR estimation. Background: On Dec 6, 1994, Orange County declared bankruptcy after suffering losses of around $1.6billion from a wrong way bet on interest rates 7.5 billion investment pool. This pool was intended to gain some returns from the investing the money which is raised from taxes and other government incomes. It was implemented a bet that the interest would decline or stay low by Citron (the portfolio manager). Because of the steadily declining interest rates from 1989 to 1992, the portfolio performed extremely well before 1994 and earned millions of above average profit. However, in 1994, the government suddenly declared policies which included raise the interest rates from 3.45% to 7.14% to prevent high inflation and overheating economy. This increase in interest rate caused the portfolio suffer 1.6 billion loss and further lead the bankruptcy of Orange County. Section 1: The heavy leveraged and interest-pledged portfolio In order to sustain above average returns, several investment tools are used by Citron to leverage the $7.5 billion funds into $20.5billion investment. In detail, reverse repurchase agreements allow Citron to use the securities which had already purchased as collateral on further borrowing and then reinvested the cash into new securities (Jameson, 2001). Besides the heavily leveraged risk, the portfolio also encounters significant risk from the unexpected interest movement. Firstly, these repurchase agreements values significantly depend on the change in interest rate. In detail, its value decrease as the interest rate increase and increase as the interest rate decrease (P=). Secondly, $2.8 billion of derivatives, including inverse floating-rate notes, dual index notes, floating-rate notes, index-amortizing notes and collateralized mortgage obligations, are used to increase the portfolio bet on the term structure of the interest rate (Jorion, 2009). Thirdly, median term maturities which had higher yields (5.2%) than the short term investments (3%) were used to increase the return of the portfolio (Jorion, 2009). However, by using longer term maturities, the portfolios sensitivity to interest change will significantly increase. Clearly, by doing these, the portfolios value will be significantly impacted by the movement of the interest. Section 2: Duration of the portfolio and its application Duration of the portfolio Hull (2009) defines the duration as a measure of how long, on average, the holder of the instrument has to wait before receiving cash payments. It measures sensitivity of price changes with changes in interest rates. Duration can be calculated by weighting average (the weight is the proportion of portfolios total present value of cash flow received at time t) of the times. In this case, the portfolio was heavily bet on the interest, therefore, duration might be a good measure for the portfolio. In the $7.5 billion portfolio, median term maturities (5 years), rather than short term maturities (1-3 years), were used to increase the return. By doing this, the duration of the portfolio significant increased. In other words, the portfolio exposed higher risk of interest rate movements. In December 1994, the average duration of the securities in the portfolio was 2.74 years. It means 1% change in interest would cause 2.74% change in portfolios prices. M oreover, Citron leveraged $7.5 billion equity into a $20.5 billion portfolio. This means that a 2.73 leverage ratio (20.5/7.5). In other words, for every dollar of the pool invested, the pool borrowed extra $1.73. For a leveraged portfolio, the effective portfolio duration = ordinary duration * leverage ratio. Thus, the effective portfolio duration of the portfolio is 7.4 (2.74*2.7). Estimation by using duration The response of portfolio prices to change in interest rate: In 1994, the interest rates went up by about 3.5 ( and the 5 years bond yield was 5%, therefore, the loss of the portfolio equals 1.85 (7.5*7.4*3.5%/1.05) which is slightly larger than the actual loss of 1.64 billion. This slightly difference between the loss estimated by duration and the actual loss might be caused by that the duration applies to only small changes in interest rate. As a first order approximation, duration cannot capture the information that two bonds with same duration can have different change in price for large change in interest rate (different convexity). So, convexity (second order approximation) which can capture this information should be added into the estimating model. Through adding this (convexity factor), the estimated loss will slightly less than before, and will more close to the actual loss (1.64 billion). Thus, duration seems to have the ability to accurate measure the portfolios sensitivity to interest rate change. Section 3: Value at risk (VAR) Value at risk (VAR) In order to estimate the underlying risk of the portfolio, VAR which measures the worst expected loss over a given horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level could be used (Jorion, 2001). Because the portfolio was heavily bet on the interest rate, its return and risk are significantly depending on the change of interest rate. In other words, the change of interest yield multiplies the modified duration and portfolio value could be used as an approximation of the change of portfolios value. Thus, the change of interest yield could be used in the 3 simulation methods as the only factor that contribute the change of portfolio value. Non-parametric approach (no need to identify variance-covariance matrix) Historical simulation approach The historical simulation accounts for non-linearity, income payments, and even time decay effects through using marking-to-market the whole portfolio over a large number of realizations of underlyi ng random variables. VAR is calculated from the percentiles of the full distribution of payoffs (Jorion, 2001). By using actual price, the method captures Greek risk (gamma, vega risk etc.) and corrections of securities (already exist in the real historical data) in the portfolio, and it does not rely on some specific assumption, such as the underlying stochastic structure of the market (the pre-requests of estimating volatility and mean). Moreover, it can account for fat tails distribution besides normal distributions (Jorion, 2001). (Figure 1) The root-T approach will be used to transfer the monthly VAR to yearly VAR in all the 3 approaches. Its success significantly relies on the some specific assumptions, including the monthly yield changes of the portfolio are identically and independently distributed (iid distribution) and the return has a constant variance (Cuthbertson and Nitzsche, 2001). However, in the real world, stock returns always has time varying variance and th ere are some autocorrelation factors exist (thus, not independent). Therefore, as the T increase, the error of the transformation will significantly increase. The VAR will be calculated through sorting the monthly yield change and picking the worst daily yield change at 5% percentile (see details in CD). However, in this case, the increase in yield will cause decrease in portfolio return, therefore, the worst daily yield change should be picked at the right hand side of the histogram (see figure 1). The VAR equals 1.24 billion annually (0.36 billion monthly) which is less than the actual loss (1.64 billion). This inaccuracy might be caused by the problems exist in historical simulation method. Firstly, the success of the method significantly relies on the assumption that the past price can represent the future price information. However, the assumption is not realistic to some extent because of the existence of market efficient. Secondly, simple historical simulation method may m iss the information of temporarily elevated volatility, such as structural breaks and extreme value (Butler and Schachter, 1996). In this case, the historical simulation method cannot capture the extreme value (1.64 billion loss) which is caused by 6 suddenly decreases of interest rate. Parametric approach (need to need to identify variance-covariance matrix) Delta normal approach The delta normal method is particularly simple approach to implement. It takes account simple variance-covariance matrix and then forecast the total variance of the portfolio (volatility). Then, The VAR can be calculated through the formula: VAR = MD*Portfolio Value*=7.4*7.5*0.4%*1.65/(1.005)=0.35 billion (monthly) = 1.21 billion (annually). Delta normal method is slightly less accurate than the historical in the case. This might caused by that the change in yield does is a fat tail distribution (Kurtosis =6.9, Skewness = -0.44) rather than a normal distribution (Kurtosis =6.9, Skewness = -0.44 ). Thus, the model based on the normal distribution will underestimate the proportion of outliers and hence the value at risk (Jorion, 2001). In addition, the portfolio contains a lot of derivatives instrument. This will cause the method inadequately measures the risk of nonlinearity. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) (the theoretical most powerful method) Unlike historical simulation, through specifying and stimulating a stochastic process for financial variables, Monte Carlo simulation covers a wide range of financial variables (volatility and stochastic variables) and fully captures correlations of securities (unlike HS, need to define the matrix) in the portfolio (Jorion, 2001). It does not only account for a wide range of risks, such as nonlinear price, volatility and model risks (the same as historical simulation), but also incorporate time variation of volatility (structural breaks and extreme values), and fat tails. Moreover, it can capture the structure changes in the port folio as the time pass (Jorion, 2001). In theoretical way, MCS should be the best method in estimating VAR. The MCS VAR is about 0.295 monthly, through using the root-T rule, the annually VAR is about 1 billion (see detail calculation in CD). There are also some limitations of Monte Carlo simulation cause the estimated error between the estimated loss and actual loss. Its success significantly relies on the specific pricing model for underlying assets and stochastic processes for the underlying risk factors. In this case, the pricing formula is Brownian approach without drift may not accurately capture the actual value change of the portfolio. This might be one possible reason that the estimated loss is not equal to the actual loss. Moreover, the problems may exist in the sample used to derivate the underlying risk factors. For example, MCS will generate less accurate estimates then delta normal method when the risk factors are jointly normal and all payoffs are liner (Cuthbertso n and Nitzsche, 2001). Why MCS (theoretical best method) shows the worst estimation in this case MCS seems to have the least accurate estimation (more closer to the actual loss) in this case. This might be caused by the portfolio used in MCS are treated as one asset which is only impacted by the interest yield. Three factors, including the correlation between all the securities in the portfolio, the underlying risk factors of these securities and the different price formula should be used for each security, are ignored in the powerful approach (Tardivo, 2002). On the other hand, compared with the MCS, historical simulation does not need to define the correlation matrix, because the data has already captured the information. In addition, underlying risk factors also contains in the actual data. Thus, in the case with limited information, historical simulation provides more accurate estimation. Section 4: EWMA In realistic world, the variance of the time series is varying overtime. Thus, the simple unconditional variance (simple variance/standard deviation) may not provide unbiased estimation of the volatility. This will further result in inaccuracy estimation of the VAR. in the case, In the case, the simple variance (volatility) are calculating through assigning the same weight on all observations during Jan 1953 and Dec 1994. This may lead to biased forecasts of VAR because the Fed dramatically increased/decreased the interest rate during this time period. In order to improve the accuracy of estimating VAR, Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) will be used to provide more accurate estimation to the volatility at a specific time (conditional standard deviation) (Cuthbertson and Nitzsche, 2001). EWMA method allows more recent observations to have stronger impact on the forecast of volatility than the old observations. In practical way, the recent data are given more weights th an the old data. By applying this model, volatility in practice will be more impacted by recent events and the impacts on volatility will decline as time pass (smaller weights apple to the event) (Brooks, 2002). Through applying the EWMA model, the monthly standard deviation for the six months before December 1994 is 0.348%. The next 6 months volatility could be forecasted through using the formula:. In addition, the actual monthly volatility could use the change in yield as approximation. According to RiskMetrics, the optimalshould be 0.97 (Brock, 2002). ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Forecast volatility (%) Actual volatility (%) Range of the possible volatility at 5% confidence level ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Volatility at june 1994 0.35 ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Left side (-1.65) Right side (1.65) Forecasted volatility ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Jul-94 0.35 -0.26 -0.57 0.57 Aug-94 0.34 0.08 -0.56 0.56 Sep-94 0.35 0.47 -0.57 0.57 Oct-94 0.34 0.20 -0.56 0.56 Nov-94 0.34 0.31 -0.56 0.56 Dec-94 0.34 0.04 -0.55 0.55 Generally, the EWMA approach does not fully capture abnormal volatility change in 1994. In detail, the actual volatility change more volatile than the forecast one (table 1). The inaccuracy involve in estimating the volatility may result in that the calculated VAR is significantly different from the actual possible loss of the portfolio (table 2). If the forecast volatility is used to calculate VAR, manager should aware that the calculated VAR is only an approximation and it cannot capture all the volatility change information. For example, in this case, the actual volatility in Sep-94 is significantly larger than the forecast one. This may cause manager to underestimate the risk in the time period and then holding the portfolio unchanged as before. It is also support by Mahoney (1996) who empirically support that the EWMA volatility has inaccuracy problems. Table 1: ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Forecast volatility (%) Actual volatility (%) Left side (-1.65) Right side (1.65) Volatility at June 1994 0.35 ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Forecasted volatility ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Jul-94 0.35 -0.26 -0.57 0.57 Aug-94 0.34 0.08 -0.56 0.56 Sep-94 0.35 0.47 -0.57 0.57 Oct-94 0.34 0.20 -0.56 0.56 Nov-94 0.34 0.31 -0.56 0.56 Dec-94 0.34 0.04 -0.55 0.55 On the other hand, VAR calculated based on EWMA volatility can still be used as a benchmark to assess the portfolios risk. All of the actual volatility is in the boundary of the forecast volatilitys 5% tail cut off (on both sides *1.65). That is to say, although there are significant differences between the forecast and the actual volatility in this case, portfolio manager may still not underestimate the underlying risk at 5% confidence level (normal distribution). In addition, if better models are used, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR , the VAR can provide more precise estimation of the worst possible loss. Table 2: ÃÆ' £Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ Forecasted VAR(*-1.65) monthly Actual VAR monthly Forecasted VAR annually Actual VAR annually Jul-94 -0.302 0.227 -1.045 0.786 Aug-94 -0.297 -0.070 -1.030 -0.242 Sep-94 -0.301 -0.410 -1.044 -1.420 Oct-94 -0.298 -0.174 -1.034 -0.604 Nov-94 -0.298 -0.270 -1.031 -0.937 Dec-94 -0.293 -0.035 -1.015 -0.121 Section 5: Backtest EWMA model In order to test whether VAR can be used as s a benchmark to assess the portfolios risk, the backtest should be used to test whether EWMA can capture the actual change in interest yield at the 5% left tail cut off level (normal distribution). Practically, if all of the actual changes in interest yield are within the forecast volatilities boundary (the forecast volatility multiply 1.65 at right hand side and -1.65 at the left hand side), the EWMA model can be considered as providing accurate estimation at 5% confidence level. According to figure 2, there are 4 outliers (Aug-89, Jan-92, Feb-94 and Mar-94) are outside the forecast. This will cause manager to over/under estimate the underlying risk of the portfolio. Figure 2: forecast volatilities boundary and actual change in interest yield Section 6: Whether the portfolio should be liquidated in December 1994 Miller and Ross (1997) recommend that the portfolio should not be liquidated until the maturity of the structural notes. This is because after the Orange County bankruptcy, the interest rate fell from 7.8% to 5.25% during Dec 1994 to Dec 1995. If it did not announce the bankruptcy, this decrease in interest rate could help the County to recover 7.4*7.5*2.55%/1.05= 1.32 billion losses. However, the problem is that in Dec 1994, how the managers would know that there would be a decrease in interest in 1995. Jorion (1997) suggest that because it is impossible to predict suddenly interest rate decrease, holding the assets in order to recover value in the next years is speculative and risky. Given this change in yield is a normal distribution, the probability of 2.55% decrease in interest can be calculated through P(=P(-6.223). According to the normal statics table, the probability of such large decrease in interest is less than 1%. Thus, the rational managers would not expect suddenl y large decrease in interest rate. In order to minimize to further loss, it is reasonable to liquidate the portfolio on Dec 1994. In addition, as the portfolio is interest pledged, some interest futures, such as the T-bond futures, could be shorted to hedge the portfolio in Dec 1993. Long cap could also a good choice to generate profit when interest rate exceeds the strike rate. This could partially compensate the massive loss. Conclusion The orange countys heavy leveraged and interest-pledged portfolio suffer massive loss in 1994 because of the suddenly increase of interest rate. Through examining this case study, the Duration and VAR are important measurement of risk to avoid future bankruptcy. Compare the duration estimated loss with the actual loss, Duration (plus convexity) of the portfolio seems to have the ability to accurately measure the portfolios sensitivity to the change in interest rate. In addition, all of the VARs calculated through three approaches, including historical simulation, delta normal, and MCS, are less than the actual loss. The theoretical best approaches (MCS) does not provide the most accurate estimation because of ignorance of some important factors, such as the correlation between all the securities in the portfolio, the underlying risk factors of these securities and the different price formula should be used for each security. The backtest of EWMA (4 outliers) suggest that there are some risk in using VAR to measure the worst possible loss in the real world.

Good Editors Notice the Details and the Big Picture

Its often said that the brains of human beings have two very distinct sides, with the left side being responsible for language, logic, and math, while the right handles spatial abilities, face recognition and processing music. Editing is also very much a two-sided process, one that we divvy up as micro- and macro-editing. Micro-editing deals with the technical, nuts-and-bolts aspects of news writing. Macro-editing deals with the content of stories. Heres a checklist of micro- and macro-editing: Micro-Editing †¢ AP Style †¢ Grammar †¢ Punctuation †¢ Spelling †¢ Capitalization Macro-Editing †¢ The lede: Does it make sense, is it supported by the rest of the story, is it in the first graf? †¢ The story: Is it fair, balanced and objective? †¢ Libel: Are there any statements that might be considered libelous? †¢ Substance: Is the story thorough and complete? Are there any holes in the story? †¢ Writing: Is the story well-written? Is it clear and understandable? Personality Type and Editing As you can imagine, certain personality types are probably better at one type of editing or the other. Precise, detail-oriented people are probably best at micro-editing, while big-picture types probably excel at macro-editing. Small Details Versus Content And in a typical newsroom, especially at larger news outlets, there is a kind of micro-macro division of labor. Copy desk editors generally focus on the small details - grammar, AP Style, punctuation and so on. Assignment editors who run the various sections of a paper - city news, sports, arts and entertainment and so on - generally focus more on the macro side of things, the content of stories. But heres the rub - a good editor has to be able to do both micro- and macro-editing, and to do both well. This is especially true at smaller publications and student newspapers, which typically have fewer staffers. Focusing on Small Details May Lose the Big Picture In other words, you must have the patience to correct bad grammar, misspelled words and punctuation problems. But you cant let yourself get so caught up in the small details that you lose sight of the big picture. For example, does the lede of the story make sense? Is the content well-written and objective? Does it cover all the bases and answer all the questions a reader would likely have? Both Are Equally Important The larger point is this—both micro- and macro-editing are equally important. You can have the most wonderfully written story in the world, but if its filled with AP Style errors and misspelled words then those things will detract from the story itself. Likewise, you can fix all the bad grammar and misplaced punctuation but if a story makes no sense, or if the lede is buried in the eighth paragraph, or if the story is biased or contains libelous content, then all the fixes you made wont amount to much. To see what we  mean, take a look at these sentences: Police said they confiscated three point two million dollars of cocain in what was a massiv drug bust. The CEO of Exon estimated that 5% of the companys profits would be plouwed back into resarch and development. Im sure youve figured out that these sentences primarily involve micro-editing. In the first sentence, cocaine and massive are spelled wrong and the dollar amount doesnt follow AP Style. In the second sentence, Exxon, plowed and research are misspelled, the percentage doesnt follow AP Style, and companys needs an apostrophe. Now, look at these sentences. The first example is meant to be a lede: There was a fire at a house last night. It was on Main Street. The fire burned the house to the ground and three children inside were killed.The CEO, who is known for his money-grubbing personality, said he would close the factory if it lost money. Here we see macro-editing problems. The first example is three sentences long when it should be one, and it buries the most important aspect of the story - the death of three children. The second sentence includes a potentially libelous bias - the money-grubbing CEO. As you can see, whether its micro- or macro-editing, a good editor has to catch every mistake in every story. As editors will tell you, theres no room for error.